Heads or Tails #13 (Vote)

A year from today we will elect a new President here in the United States. One fearless prediction: It won't be George W. Bush. Say what you will about his apparent disregard for constitutional niceties, Mr. Bush will lay down the burden of office in January 2009 -- right on schedule.

Are you listening Hugo Chavez? Vladimir Putin? Pervez Musharraf?

American policy is criticized in every corner of the globe -- and we can argue about policies -- but the near-inevitability of a peaceful transfer of power makes America very unusual in the history of the world. And that should make all Americans proud -- whether they are eager they are to see Mr. Bush leave or hoping that his policies will be continued by someone else.

Remember what George III said of George Washington was retiring as Commander in Chief of the Army in 1783: "If he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world."

Well, he did retire. And he did it again in 1797, when he made way for John Adams.

Washington was keenly aware that he was setting the tone for all the others who would come after him, whether they would be judged lesser or greater by the wise men of History. He said, "I walk on untrodden ground. There is scarcely any part of my conduct which may not hereafter be drawn into precedent."

And the most important precedent he set was stepping aside. "I had rather be on my farm than be emperor of the world," he said. And he followed through. His attitude, thankfully, became embedded in the American psyche.

Washington and the other Founders were students of the Roman Republic, the longest lasting and largest scale precedent for the experiment they were launching in North America. Ironically, Washington seems to have been most taken with Cato and the other boni who -- in the traditional view -- resisted Julius Caesar's efforts to make himself king.

I've seen a different lesson in the incessant political trials of the late Republic: The incentive to return to the plow is greatly diminished if prosecution is part of the pension plan for retiring politicians. Caesar faced certain prosecution, likely exile, and possibly even execution at the hands of his political enemies. Why would he surrender his imperium?

Just because I'm from Chicago, please don't assume that I am suggesting tolerance for corruption in office. But there is a disturbing trend in our politics now to try and criminalize policy decisions. This has been a truly bipartisan concept, flourishing in the last days of the Clinton administration, and flourishing certainly in the dying days of the Bush presidency. And it's so terribly dangerous.

Don't prosecute the rascals -- whoever you think the rascals are. Vote 'em out of office.

------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh -- and one more fearless prediction -- I think the 2012 primaries will start by April 2008....